Blowout Simulation Scenarios & Running the Simulations
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The probabilistic scenarios of the blowout exit points and flowpath can be changed according to the desired scenario by adjusting the sliders shown below. The sliders to the left is for scenarios at the surface, the sliders to the right is for scenarios at seabed.
The default distribution between the different blowout exit points and flow paths are based on incidents collected in the SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database (SOBD).
Exit Point
Flowpath
Drill pipe
11 %
Annulus
78 %
Open hole
11 %
By each slider, there is a lock. If you click on it, the chosen flow percentage will be locked, and the remaining percentage will be distributed between the remaining options. You have to unlock the slider, before you may lock another one.
Following, you can set the desired reservoir penetration and restrictions according to the desired scenario as shown above.
Note: Blowout when penetrating top of reservoir means the blowout will penetrate the top 5 m of the reservoir
The penetrations and restrictions have to be changed manually for each reservoir zone, if the user wants to simulate with other distributions than the default options (55% through top of reservoir, 45% through full reservoir). The length, max OD, pressure rating and opening distribution of the blowout BOP (blowout opening propability) can also be defined under Blowout Preventer.
Note: If one of the penetration scenarios under “Reservoir Penetration and restrictions” is set to 100% and the BOP distribution is 100%, the blowout rates will have the same values for every blowout scenario (Min, Mean, Max, P10 etc.). This is because the Monte Carlo iterations needs statistical variation related to zone penetration and BOP opening, in order to generate a probabilistic rate distribution. I.e. there is no statistical variation when BOP opening = 100% and one of the zone penetration scenarios is 100%.
Well kill mechanisms can also be modified according to the desired scenario, as well as the duration of each well kill mechanism. If the probability of the relief well kill mechanism is > 0%, a set of inputs become available for the user. These are:
Decision Time (Days)
Mobilization Time (Days)
Rig Move Time (Days)
Drilling Time (Days)
Steer / Control (Days)
Kill Relief Time (Days)
The simulation is then ready to be run.
To run a blowout simulation, click Save and run simulation. Before running, the software will go through all the scenario settings and check that it makes sense to simulate with the given parameters, giving you a message with errors or warnings if something doesn’t seem right.
After running a successful simulation, you will receive the results. You may select if you want to see a summary in relation to the mean, max, min values or a percentage value.
